4 comments

Everyone, now, repeat after me: “calendar year” ≠ “fiscal year”. In fact, write it on the blackboard 500 times.

Munster’s prediction is for sales in Apple’s fourth FISCAL quarter, which is the THIRD calendar quarter of the year. Apple’s stated goal for selling 10M iPhones is for CALENDAR year 2008. With 5M sold in the 3rd calendar quarter, selling at least that many again in the 4th calendar quarter should be a piece of cake, given that sales gradually ramp where it’s already on sale, and it will have been on sale in more countries for the whole quarter (wasn’t it something like 22 countries were added during this current quarter, and some more are still impending?). Not only that, but the 4th cal quarter is the peak-selling holiday season.

It’s amazing to me that one simple sales goal (”10M iPhones in calendar 2008″) is subject to so much confusion ….

Paul Lustgarten, on September 22nd, 2008 at 7:22 am

Didn’t apple state that it wanted to sell 10 million iPhones by the end of 2008 at the launch of the iPhone, which was about half way through last year?
So that all sales from the launch need to be factored in, not just sales from this calendar year.

Mark, on September 22nd, 2008 at 11:37 pm

Mark: I think you are right. I pulled up a USA Today quote on the day of the 2007 launch of the original iPhone — “In January Jobs projected sales of 10 million in the first 18 months, a figure he reiterated on Thursday.”

Ed Sutherland, on September 23rd, 2008 at 4:51 am

It’s actually 10m in calandar 2008. Call it 2.5m 1st half, 5m estimate for Sept qtr, leaves 2.5m to beat in Dec qtr, I think the Sep qtr (Q4) will be higher than 5m. Likely close to 7m since shipments to carriers count as sales even though not sold to consumers. Apple has replenished the supply starvation of ATT and interantional carriers this month, so those shipments will count as sales for the quarter even though some of those units might not be purchased until the 1st or 2nd week of OCT.

http://financial-alchemist.blogspot.com/2008/09/q4-sales-estimates-for-apples-3g-iphone.html

There has been much confusion over the 10m sales goal. The media has quoted it wrong many times, as Apple was vague when first announced.

However, Apple has clarified several times on conference calls, the goal is 10m in CY 2008. Jan 1 - Dec 31 2008. Not cumulative by 2008. but IN 2008.

turley Muller, on September 29th, 2008 at 1:49 pm