9 comments

I KNEW this would happen. I’m glad I sold half my shares about ten days ago (needed some liquidity, i.e., gas money) and am disappointed I didn’t sell it all.

With AAPL calling for $1.00 next quarter I predict they’ll do $1.25.

They will have HUGE back to school sales of Macs. All the iPod Touches that go with student sales count as sales since it’s a rebate program and just after that program closes they will launch NEW product including the new MBP, new MB, a fully touch screen Nano AND the fabled tablet.

The Rude Bellman know secrets but never tells how or where he learned them.

The Rude Bellman, on July 21st, 2008 at 3:52 pm

The way Wall Street rolls is to shake out weak longs so the Big Boyz can add to their holdings at cheaper buy-in prices ahead of the big run, then to over-promote shares when prices are highest and book profits.

See the way they drove the stock down from 200 to 120 in Jan/Feb and rode it all the way back up on the wave of iPhone launch hype. They will talk it all the way back down to 130 - 140 before Labor Day and it will be making new highs over 200 before the Holiday Shopping season begins after Thanksgiving.

Jobs did not look well at WWDC, but as Leander wrote for CoM at the time, Apple will be fine without him.

Lonnie Lazar, on July 21st, 2008 at 4:57 pm

Earth to everybody…I thought it was well known that Steve is a vegetarian and Buddhist. The man doesn’t eat meat, people! Apparently he’s also a jogger, hence the New Balance track shoes all the time.

I know in today’s America it’s unusual to be lean and fit instead of sitting around on your fat ass analyzing stock all day, but this is ridiculous! If everybody on Wall Street stopped eating meat for the next five years, I bet you wouldn’t look the same, either.

Peace.

Olmecmystic, on July 21st, 2008 at 6:22 pm

Love the update, it’s like a “Oh, hey, we didn’t know what we were talking about this time around but felt like posting. But don’t worry, someone corrected us and now it’s all good. Our bad “

Thomas, on July 21st, 2008 at 6:52 pm

Wall Street to Earth - It’s a Bear Market and you don’t lower margins in a Bear Market and expect to be rewarded for it.

Love Apple but I love reality even more.

Thom, on July 21st, 2008 at 7:19 pm

@ Olmecmystic

Second that.

Church of Apple, on July 22nd, 2008 at 8:42 am

Uh, when was the last time Jobs participated in an earnings call?

And while its understood Apple gives conservative guidance (which Wall Street does tend to freak out about), there is something weird about this one. Their Q4 guidance is LOWER than their actual Q3 numbers they just announced.
Q3 had zero new iPhone revenues recognized (they were deferred from March to July), and is the “slow” season for hardware.
Q4 will have the start of the iPhone 3G revenues (over 24 months), continued revenues from the original iPhone (over 24 months), and back to school hardware sales.

Even given the lower profit margins projected because of secret products, its a bit weird the overall revenues would be lower, even given their conservativism.

AAPLWatcher, on July 22nd, 2008 at 8:48 am

YOY 3Q was plus 38%, guidance for YOY Q4 was plus 26% or so. Lower in a way, but I don’t see APPL falling out of bed with 25+% YOY growth on a quarterly basis.

On a revenue basis, 3Q was $7.46B with estimates for 4Q at $8B+, so that’s not really lower, is it?

Lonnie Lazar, on July 22nd, 2008 at 10:42 am

Go figure why, now looks like the time to buy.
Here’s some insider info that any MAC user knows.
There is no quit and there is no finish.
Understand.

Gary L, on July 28th, 2008 at 6:38 pm